Marc Mesmar Property Consultant In Dubai

The Debate of Countless Lifetimes 

Probably the most discussed topic among investors in virtually every asset class out there. It also is still very much linked to my main ethos which I repeat a lot and that is each investor has a very unique and particular case which needs to be serviced in that direction rather than claiming the “best” investment in the market which is echoed a lot in the market.

Is there one way to answer it? No,  but time and time again studies have shown that timing the market is highly inaccurate and the opportunity cost of not starting is usually always higher than waiting.  Also, it is very easy for one to get carried away and say I wish I bought then. Its very easy to look back in retrospect and confirm a decision but the reality is much more different. For the most, part people are able to purchase properties when the market is bullish because the general health of the economy is better and investors have more disposable income. There are few select investors who don’t really get affected by economic crashes and are able to buy in the downturn. Even buying the downturn presents risk as the market can continue to drop and there is never a clear answer as to when the market will pick up again.

The biggest misconception in the Dubai real estate market is waiting for the market to “crash/correct”. Even if you are an opportunistic investor who enjoys buying early before the hype there are plenty of options especially when selecting new master communities or new prospective areas with potential for growth. When you obtain information from a consultant it will significantly shrink the time required to do research and select the right option. I apply the same technique when I invest in other asset classes. I consult professionals at any given market cycle and there is always an opportunity to choose from.

Generally speaking, real estate is a wealth preservation asset and historically has always gone up in value over time. The unique situation of Dubai allows this asset to yield more profits in a shorter period of time compared to more mature real estate markets. The volatility allows more potential for growth, but as an investor you are hedged for many reasons , which I will post about in other articles.  This definitely still comes with risk and that’s why getting in touch with a trusted advisor plays a big role in mitigating risk and maximizing profit.

How to leverage market cycles?

There are different methods to approach an investment depending on the current cycle you plan to invest in.

The reality is for real estate in Dubai that there will always be lucrative opportunities presented in each market cycle, but not all opportunities are compatible with all investors. This is when sometimes I might ask clients to hold off from deciding.

It’s always best we get on a call to discuss this because what I will share below is general framework to consult. Its never black and white and previous cycles will always have different variables that produced certain results. Especially, when considering Dubai there are opportunities that exist for buyers who prefer buying early stage projects that have potential for the highest capital gain regardless of the market cycle as well.

 

Market Cycle	Characteristics	Recommended Strategies
Recovery	– Prices stabilizing or slightly increasing – Improved rental yields – Early investor activity – Policy incentives emerging	– Buy undervalued or distressed properties – Invest in emerging communities – Focus on rental yield (e.g., holiday homes) – Leverage favorable financing conditions
Expansion	– Strong price growth – High demand & transaction volume – Developer activity increases – Positive sentiment – Balanced supply & demand	– Buy off-plan from reputable developers – Flip short-term for profit – Diversify across property types & areas – Use leverage wisely – Define clear exit strategies (hold vs. sell)
Peak	– Prices at or near all-time highs – Market shows signs of overheating – Speculative buying rises – Potential oversupply	– Sell or exit high-performing assets – Avoid buying into hype or speculation – Focus on income-generating assets – Invest selectively in early-stage off-plan or undersupplied areas
Contraction	– Price drops or stagnation – Decline in transactions – Increased inventory & distress sales – Investor caution dominates	– Prioritize cash flow over appreciation – Avoid overleveraging – Upgrade properties to increase value – Use time to research and reposition portfolio

 

Buying a home to live in:

As for people looking to invest to live in the property there is technically no “right” time to make an investment if the current investor is financially, emotionally, mentally qualified for the decision. Reason is that you will most likely end up spending a significant amount of rent of the years that will be recovered. Therefore, buying a property will always guarantee you equity. For instance, let’s say you spend on average 100,000 AED on rent per year and end up paying rent for 10 years you have just helped someone else make 1,000,000 AED instead of retaining equity for yourself.

 

Final Thoughts: 

It is very tempting for anyone to conduct a lot of research now a days with all the tools at our disposal.  This includes other areas of expertise such as health, law, financial markets etc… These tools can be helpful without a doubt but especially when it comes to AI a lot of errors are still in place when it comes to number and analysis. Best to always consult a professional with a track record that you trust to protect your portfolio in the long run.